Monthly Depletion Read
The headline
You are up. Portfolio depletions are +21.6% year to date versus the same five months last year, 1,644 cases against 1,352. Kentucky is doing the heavy lifting, but the growth isn't one lucky state carrying the rest. Three things below deserve attention this month: one to pour fuel on, one to fix, and one report that has not landed.
What is moving
Straight Rye is your breakout, up 53.3% from its first full month to its third. Still small, but it's landing in Louisville and Nashville accounts faster than Small Batch did at launch. Push it for placements while it has momentum.
Kentucky is the core and it's accelerating, up 40% year to date. Small Batch is doing the volume; off-premise is holding the strength it's known for.
What is not
Indiana is down 12.7% and it is not a blip. The decline runs across the last few months there, while Kentucky and Tennessee both grow.
It's your smallest of the three states, but a state that's shrinking while the other two grow is the number to act on first, before it becomes a trend you have to explain.
The gap
Tennessee has not reported May. Kentucky and Indiana are both in; Tennessee stops at April (the amber flag on the dashboard).
Either the report is late or something changed at the distributor. Do not read the May total as final until it lands.
Do these five things this month
- Get on the phone about Indiana. Ask what changed: lost placements, a reset, reduced focus, a competitor promotion. You cannot fix what you have not diagnosed. This is the priority.
- Chase the Tennessee May report. One quick email closes the gap so next month's number is clean.
- Push Straight Rye while it is hot. Use the growth as your pitch for more on-premise placements at accounts like Harlan & Vine and The Copper Still. Momentum is your best sales argument.
- Protect the Indiana core. Make sure Small Batch holds its existing points of distribution there before chasing new accounts.
- Watch Rye for cannibalization. Pull next month's Small Batch vs Straight Rye split by state. If Small Batch shrinks where Rye grows, you are trading margin, not gaining volume.
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